Demografik Gelişmeler ve Makroekonomik Etkileri (Demographic Developments and Their Macroeconomic Impacts)

Demographic Developments and Their Macroeconomic Impacts

19/11

M. Koray Kalafatcılar

Turkish

May 2019

This study firstly introduces demographic concepts and reveals the different dynamics displayed by emerging and advanced economies. Then, the links between demographic developments and economic activity are discussed. We aim to support our arguments with quantitative findings obtained through a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model. The general equilibrium model, which is calibrated for Turkey, is simulated for the period until 2050 in accordance with changes in demographic exogenous variables. Through this simulation, the path that main macroeconomic variables follow is analyzed. The simulation exercise, conducted through the model which is de-trended with the increases in productivity and population, reveals that, compared to the initial steady state, production factor prices significantly change; real interest rate declines and real wage increases.

Demography, Overlapping generations, Savings, General equilibrium

J11; E21; C61