Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies

Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies

Title : Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies
Number : 12/07
Author(s) : Meltem G. Chadwick, Fatih Fazilet, Necati Tekatlı
Language : English
Date : January 2012
Abstract : The aim of this study is to show that there exists a common movement among the currencies of emerging market economies that implemented the flexible exchange rate regime after 2000. Also, we examine if this common movement is closely related to financial markets and some macroeconomic fundamentals commonly referred to as possible driving forces of exchange rates in economics literature. This common movement, which has been derived using a dynamic factor model, is introduced as a composite index of these currencies. Our findings suggest that the currencies of the emerging market economies have a common movement which can be explained to a great extent with the help of financial variables. On the other hand, macroeconomic fundamentals have limited explanatory power for apprehending the common dynamics of currencies. Also, both financial variables and macroeconomic fundamentals are analyzed together, within a nonlinear estimation framework, to see if the explanatory power of macroeconomic fundamentals improves. However, we could not observe a significant improvement. Specifically, the results underline the importance of bond market variables, stock market variables and risk indices in understanding the (common) dynamics of the emerging market currencies after 2000.
Keywords : Exchange rate analysis, Emerging market economies, Dynamic factor model, Financial analysis, Exchange rate models, Nonlinear models.
JEL Codes : C32; F31; G15

Common Movement of the Emerging Market Currencies
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