Ins and Outs of Unemployment in Turkey

Ins and Outs of Unemployment in Turkey

Title : Ins and Outs of Unemployment in Turkey
Number : 12/10
Author(s) : Gönül Şengül
Language : English
Date : March 2012
Abstract : This paper analyzes rates of inflow to and outflow from unemployment for Turkey. Using monthly data from the Household Labor Force Survey, the paper computes the time series for the flow rates since 2006. The average probability of exiting unemployment (outflow) within a month is 9.4 percent, while the average probability of transiting from employment to unemployment within a month (inflow) is 1.3 percent. Moreover, the analysis of inflow and outflow rates for different age and education groups show that the inflow rates change significantly across these groups. The paper also decomposes the changes in unemployment into contributions from inflow and outflow rates. During the sample period, the volatility of inflow rate to unemployment is the main driving force of the change in the unemployment rate in Turkey.
Keywords : Unemployment, Worker flows, Job finding rate, Separation rate
JEL Codes : E24; J6

Ins and Outs of Unemployment in Turkey
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