Türkiye İçin Bir Reel İktisadi Faaliyet Göstergesi (A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey)

Türkiye İçin Bir Reel İktisadi Faaliyet Göstergesi (A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey)

Title : A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey
Number : 12/19
Author(s) : S. Borağan Aruoba, Çağrı Sarıkaya
Language : Turkish
Date : June 2012
Abstract : This paper presents a monthly indicator of real economic activity for historical accounting and real-time monitoring of business cycles in Turkey. Business conditions, an unobserved component implied by the interaction and comovement of various macroeconomic variables, are related to a number of observables at multiple frequencies and estimated within a dynamic factor model. We introduce a recession indicator and thereby compare the severity of turbulence/crisis periods during 1987-2011. High degree of uncertainty embodied in the end-of-sample factor estimates complicates real time detection of recessions and thus points to the need for timely information in a forward-looking policy framework.
Keywords : Business cycle, Expansion, Contraction, Recession, Dynamic factor model, Unobserved component, State space model, Macroeconomic forecasting, Real-time analysis
JEL Codes : C01; C22; E32; E37

Türkiye İçin Bir Reel İktisadi Faaliyet Göstergesi (A Real Economic Activity Indicator for Turkey)
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