Türkiye’de Enflasyonun İş Çevrimlerine Duyarlılığı:Çıktı Açığına Duyarlı TÜFE Alt Gruplarının Saptanması (Sensitivity of Inflation to Business Cycles in Turkey: Determining CPI Sub-items Sensitive to Output Gap)

Türkiye’de Enflasyonun İş Çevrimlerine Duyarlılığı:Çıktı Açığına Duyarlı TÜFE Alt Gruplarının Saptanması (Sensitivity of Inflation to Business Cycles in Turkey: Determining CPI Sub-items Sensitive to Output Gap)

Title:

Sensitivity of Inflation to Business Cycles in Turkey: Determining CPI Sub-items Sensitive to Output Gap

Number:

14/37

Author(s):

Oğuz Atuk, Cem Aysoy, Mustafa Utku Özmen, Çağrı Sarıkaya

Language:

Turkish

Date:

October 2014

Abstract:

This study investigates the sensitivity of consumer price index (CPI) sub-items to output gap in Turkey. To this aim, we estimate standard Phillips curve equations for each of the 152 subgroups of the COICOP 5-digit CPI and determine the goods and services that respond to output gap in a statistically and economically significant manner. Empirical findings show that about one-third of the consumer basket is affected by output gap. Remaining items found to be insensitive to output gap generally co-move with imported inflation. The results imply that solely resorting to countercyclical policies for a sustained disinflation in Turkey may not be sufficient.

Keywords:

Output gap, Inflation, Phillips curve, CPI, Turkey

JEL Codes:

C13; C51; E31; E32

Türkiye’de Enflasyonun İş Çevrimlerine Duyarlılığı:Çıktı Açığına Duyarlı TÜFE Alt Gruplarının Saptanması (Sensitivity of Inflation to Business Cycles in Turkey: Determining CPI Sub-items Sensitive to Output Gap)
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