A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy

Title:

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy

Number:

15/23

Author(s):

Buhara Aslan, Merve Mavuş Kütük ve Arif Oduncu

Language:

English

Date:

September 2015

Abstract:

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have commenced to establish bilateral and regional trade agreements. Among those agreements the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) are agreements with members from across the Atlantic and the Pacific respectively. This study focuses on the impacts of these agreements on Chinese economy under three scenarios by using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage in Chinese economy is higher than the damage of the TTIP alone. On the other hand, inclusion of China in the TPP results in positively affected economic variables. In other words, positive impacts of participation of China in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP.

Keywords:

Free trade agreements, Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, Trans-Pacific Partnership, China

JEL Codes:

F13; F14; F15

A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership on Chinese Economy
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