Firmaların Sabit Sermaye Yatırım Kararlarının Analizi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayine Dair Bulgular (Analysis of Firms’ Fixed Capital Investment Decisions: Some Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry)

Firmaların Sabit Sermaye Yatırım Kararlarının Analizi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayine Dair Bulgular (Analysis of Firms’ Fixed Capital Investment Decisions: Some Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry)

Title:

Analysis of Firms’ Fixed Capital Investment Decisions: Some Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry

Number:

16/16

Author(s):

Evren Erdoğan Coşar

Language:

Turkish

Date:

July 2016

Abstract:

In this study, firms’ fixed capital investment expectations taken from the Investment Survey conducted by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey are analysed using panel data technics. Although the results do not support rational expectations they provide some evidence for adaptive expectations as the mechanism that more adequately describes the formation of expectations. The median and standard deviation of errors on firms’ current year forecasts are found to be lower than the errors on firms’ previous year forecasts. The change in firms’ opinions about demand, financial sources and expected profitability are found to be related with forecast errors. While economy-wide exchange rate uncertainty, industry-wide uncertainty and changes in $/TL rate cause realized investment to be lower than forecasts, firm-specific uncertainty does not significantly affect forecast errors. However, the rise in exchange rate uncertainty in 2014-2015 period did not cause a decrease in firms’ investment decision.

Keywords:

Investment survey, Rational expectations, Adaptive expectations, Regressive expectations, Forecast revisions, Uncertainty

JEL Codes:

C23; D81; D84; E22

Firmaların Sabit Sermaye Yatırım Kararlarının Analizi: Türkiye İmalat Sanayine Dair Bulgular (Analysis of Firms’ Fixed Capital Investment Decisions: Some Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry)
CENTRAL BANK OF THE REPUBLIC OF TURKEY Head Office Anafartalar Mah. İstiklal Cad. No:10 06050 Ulus Altındağ Ankara Phone : (+90 312) 507 50 00 | Fax : (+90 312) 507 56 40