Türkiye'de Konjonktürel Etkilerden Arındırılmış Cari İşlemler Dengesi (Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance In Turkey)

Title:

Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balance In Turkey

Number:

13/40

Author(s):

A. Hakan Kara, Çağrı Sarıkaya

Language:

Turkish

Date:

November 2013

Abstract:

Current account deficit in Turkey has been quite volatile and fluctuating at high levels in recent years. As a consequence, macro financial risks associated with external imbalances have been at the core of policy discussions. A starting point in this respect may be decomposition of cyclical and structural parts of the current account balance. Employing a simple methodology, this study aims at adjusting the current account balance for the Turkish economy by correcting the cyclical components such as external demand, domestic demand and foreign trade prices during 2003-2012 period. The estimations under various assumptions indicate deterioration in the structural (non-cyclical) part of the current account balance during the last decade. Recent episode is characterized by a rather stable course for the underlying current account deficit around 5 percent of the GDP. Our findings contribute to the understanding of recent dynamics in the current account balance and associated policies.

Keywords:

Current Account, Foreign Trade, Business Cycle, Cyclical Adjustment, Filtering

JEL Codes:

E32; F14; F32